I just read your Cuan Analysis and its quite nice. Is it a daily analysis?And I just knew that you invent something new, Astronacci. I'll visit your website to get a different perspective on trading. Its really nice to know, meet and have a conversation with you. Send my regards to your friend as well Mr Kwee Cheng. Have a nice trading day for tomorrow.
Thank you for your kind reply. I take attention to 2 sectors of your lists. First is Banking. An Overweight condition force "them" to re-allocate their portfolio to cooler sector. In my humble opinion, this will be a great opportunity to Sell on strength, using the pop up strategy. I found that majority banking stocks in Indonesia already outperformed the JCI, and may enter the excess phase soon. For US Bank, let says the Citigroup. More than likely it will move little bit stronger until Summer 2010 based on technically view.
Beside, I agree with you about overweight banking sector in gold rally consideration. I see potential strong bullish campaign until year 2012, based on Astrological, Fundamental and Technically. The potential Upside target of intermediate term Gold price is approximately above USD 1.600 per troy once. The
value of DJIA may fall lots compare to gold, also the USD goes weaker. Then, HFs may switch the financial sector to other underweight sector.
So I will keep Sell on Strength and do a short term trade in Banking Sector.
The second sector that I am interested in is Property. To be honest, there are huge opportunity for property sector in Indonesia. Personally, I will choose SMRA.JK and DGIK.JK, BSDE.JK, and ASRI.JK for my stock pick (Trading). I believe if your HF company willing to invest in Indonesia's property stocks, this will be great for us. I believe you are outstanding to make a good property research. I just share my trading point of view.
Finally, I really enjoy our nice conversation. That will be my honor if you willing to visit my website and join as a member, at www.stocksforliving .com . I am sure Your ideas, aspiration and point of view will help lot of Indonesian investors. May God bless Us and this beloved Obrolan
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--- Pada Rab, 21/4/10, SyIFA Fund <syifa.fund@yahoo. com> menulis:
Dari: SyIFA Fund <syifa.fund@yahoo. com>
Judul: Re: [ob] DISSCUSSION WITH SF FUND - OVERWEIGHT SECTOR
Kepada: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com
Tanggal: Rabu, 21 April, 2010, 4:32 PM
Dear Mr Kwee Cheng,
Sorry for my late response, just finished my half-hour meeting about market conditions. Since these 3 sectors are considered overweight in HFs portfolio, then we believe that HFs will switch their stocks allocation to underweight stocks in near term and this should be the evidence after the strong signal that mentioned no more problems in macroeconomic measures (inflation, unemployment, debt crisis issue etc) which stated, at least, that stability condition has been achieved. In more stable conditions, to enhance their portfolio value, HFs will move to high Beta stocks.
In our view, there are some main high Beta sectors:
1. Finance-especially Banking (BUT it's already Overweight)
2. Mining and its supporting (underweight)
3. Agriculture (neutral view)
Property (considerably underweight)
And thanks for your link, I will have a look after one more meeting. It's already night time in Indonesia right now,isn't it?
One more thing: Just ignore GS problem, SEC won't be able to bring them to court due to their own internal problem, so don't worry about commodity price!
Where you can trust your fund
--- On Wed, 4/21/10, Kwee Cheng <kwee.cheng@yahoo. com> wrote:
From: Kwee Cheng <kwee.cheng@yahoo. com>
Subject: [ob] DISSCUSSION WITH SF FUND - OVERWEIGHT SECTOR
To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com
Date: Wednesday, April 21, 2010,
That is a great explanation.
Since Low Beta is the parameter to choose the sector, therefore the
overweight view comes from hedge fund portfolio is reasonable. Is there
any possibility for fund switch from consumer, auto and bank back to
mining again? As we known that mining sector still sustain in under
perform toward to Composite Index.
In my fundamental view, Grains
and Metal should be in bullish at least for the next 2 years. But, we
still need the money to lift up metal stocks in Indonesia. I bet my
money on TINS and Gold stocks here, also coal.
Few days ago I did
a research with my friend Aditya Kurniawan about net buy and sell
transaction based on two parameters. First is Foreign activity and the
second is per trade quantity (based on our standard). You can find the
final research through the link below.
DOWNLOAD NET BUY SELL RESEARCH
Hopefully, it can reflects the current condition in JKSE. I am looking
forward from you.
--- Pada Rab, 21/4/10, SyIFA Fund <syifa.fund@yahoo. com>
Dari: SyIFA Fund
Judul: Re: IHSG: Rekayasa index dan
EW.....Re: Bls: [ob] TLKM Time Analysis By Mr. Gema
obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com
Tanggal: Rabu, 21 April, 2010, 9:41 AM
Mr Kwee Cheng,
SF base is in UK right now, but still has
interest in IDX. We already held several meetings with Hedge Funds (HFs)
from UK and US and from our regional meeting, we can get a conclusion
that it seems some of HFs put lots of their money in these 3 sectors.
past 2 years, they just avoided other sectors due to their prediction
about continuing recession, so they choose low Beta sector (consumer
goods). But after knowing that economy already grew (although still in
moderate way), then they put more money in a higher Beta company (which
is automotive sectors- durable goods). At the same time, they also put
their money to banking sectors based on a simple reason (most of
emerging markets banking is not really affected by last credit
crunch..especially in Indonesia).
sectors have been pressured too much since they switched they portfolio
to these 3 sectors in crisis period, Based on information that we
received from some of our researchers (two from leading state-owned
securities in Indonesia; one from foreign securities, still in
Indonesia), banking, automotive and consumer good already hit their
target price but continue to move above their fundamentals (simply due
to demand v.s supply problems; changing in risk perspective) .
it will be helped Mr Kwee Cheng, It's already 10.45am here.